Predictions from Trump: Funny, but Profitable

BTC/USD

Key zone: 106,500 - 109,500

Buy: 110,000 (on strong positive fundamentals) ; target 113,500-115,000; StopLoss 109,000

Sell: 106,500 (on a pullback after a correction to 109,500) ; target 103,500; StopLoss 107,500

The sitting U.S. President is pushing his social-network platform into a new market. In partnership with Crypto.com, the company Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) announced the launch of the service Truth Predict, which will accept bets on any events – from the weather and football to federal-funds rate decisions and gold prices.

Can Truth Predict compete with Kalshi and Polymarket – we may soon see the outcome.

The U.S. partner in the project, the American subsidiary Derivatives North America (CDNA), is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and will settle contracts in tokens of Cronos (CRO) – the native asset of the Crypto.com ecosystem. After beta-testing, the service will become available to U.S. users – it will be the first social platform to integrate a predictions market.

Reminder: prediction markets operate on event probabilities, and prices form based on crowds’ consensus.

A new cycle of development began with blockchain platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Together they set a new industry standard – combining transparency, liquidity, and advanced technology.

In September alone the combined trading volume of Kalshi and Polymarket hit a record $1.44 billion; Kalshi overtook Polymarket for the first time, taking 60% market share. As of October, Kalshi alone hit a record 800 000 crypto transactions in one month.

Kalshi is a serious, CFTC-licensed, fully regulated platform frequented not only by retail traders but also institutional investors assessing risks tied to inflation, Fed decisions, or elections.

Polymarket is a decentralised project built on the Polygon blockchain by Shayne Coplan. High liquidity and no central control make it a polarising choice for crypto-investors and analysts.

The freshest example of “easy money”: during a photo-op Trump and Xi Jinping held a formal handshake for 25 seconds, and many fans made money by betting on the duration of their “friendly contact” on Polymarket. The option “more than 10 seconds” was not the most popular but yielded the largest payout.

For Trump, the predictions market is yet another monetisation method for his audience. Truth Social seeks to transform its user-community into a financial ecosystem where any topic or event can generate money or other benefits. The shift from opinions and expectations to real financial positions will allow Trump to merge media, finance, and politics into one ecosystem.

The project Truth Predict could change the entire dynamic of user interaction in the political space—but it faces a major risk: prediction markets remain under strict regulatory scrutiny. And it would be unwise to bet on full regulatory support for Trump just yet.

Let’s see how this turns out.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!