Bitcoin: Options Might Save the Situation

BTC/USD

Key zone: 108,500 - 112,000

Buy: 112,500 (on strong positive fundamentals); target 115,000-117,500; StopLoss 111,500

Sell: 108,000 (on a pullback after a retest of the 110,000 level) ; target 105,500; StopLoss 109,000

Bitcoin remains stuck within the $107,500–115,000 range that has defined its movement throughout the week. The price increased by 1.4% during the European session (+2.6% for the week). Sentiment has slightly improved, but caution persists.

There isn’t enough volume for a new upward push—traders are waiting for solid confirmation before opening new longs.

ETF outflows totaling $101 million showed that crypto whales have not yet supported the bullish move. However, Bitcoin is clearly not ready for a massive sell-off either.

Open interest in BTC has reached $50 billion. Today, 47,000 options worth $5.1 billion are set to expire, with a PUT/CALL ratio of 1.03.

This ratio indicates that the number of long and short contract holders is nearly equal, which explains the stable sideways movement. The most significant strike price for closing the majority of contracts is around $114,000—exactly matching the upper resistance zone.

The Deribit exchange, which accounts for about 80% of the world’s open interest in crypto options, reported a sharp increase in contracts at key strike levels.

Open interest at the psychological level of $100,000 totals roughly $2.17 billion—some traders are betting on a correction to this area. However, positioning at higher strikes is significantly stronger—more than $2 billion at $120,000, $130,000, and $140,000. Large traders are expecting or hedging a major continuation of the bullish movement, meaning the medium-term trend is stronger than what technical indicators on the chart suggest.

The crypto market, like all others, awaited U.S. inflation data—annual inflation in September reached 3.0% for the first time since January.

The report came in weaker than expected—this allows the Fed to focus more on supporting the labor market rather than maintaining high interest rates. As a result, further dollar weakness alongside gains in gold, stocks, and commodity-linked currencies may follow.

Traders remain wary of volatility and continue to hedge risks using options and futures. Moreover, debt in the Bitcoin mining sector has increased significantly as mining companies shift toward AI and high-performance computing.

For now, the base case remains a sideways range, with key support around $108,500. A breakout above the $115,000 resistance area would confirm a bullish scenario. A move below $108,500 would bring the bearish case back into play.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!